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Frontier Research Gap Mapper for Mega-Projects

Author: PlanExe Team
Date: 2026-02-10
Status: Proposal
Tags: research, frontier, megaprojects, feasibility, innovation

Pitch

Detect where a plan depends on unresolved science or engineering and map those dependencies into a structured R&D register before committing to a bid.

Why

Some plans require breakthroughs, not just execution discipline. Hidden research dependencies are major bid risks that should be explicit, costed, and staged.

Problem

  • Frontier gaps are often implicit, not stated.
  • Feasibility assessments assume mature technology.
  • Bids proceed before critical R&D constraints are understood.

Proposed Solution

Create a module that:

  1. Identifies plan components that exceed current state-of-practice.
  2. Classifies maturity level and research gaps.
  3. Produces a research dependency register with timelines and uncertainty.
  4. Adjusts bidability and feasibility scores accordingly.

Classification Framework

Each component is tagged as:

  • Mature: proven in real-world deployments.
  • Adaptation Required: proven elsewhere but needs modification.
  • Frontier: unproven at required scale or conditions.

Research Dependency Register

Each gap includes:

  • Challenge statement
  • Current state-of-practice
  • Missing capability threshold
  • Estimated R&D timeline
  • Cost uncertainty band

Example Challenge Classes (Arctic Bridge)

  • ultra-cold concrete curing and durability
  • ice-load resistant structural systems
  • remote logistics and year-round constructability
  • cross-border governance and standards harmonization

Output Schema

{
  "component": "ice_load_resilience",
  "maturity": "frontier",
  "gap": "No validated structural system for multi-year ice pack",
  "estimated_rnd_years": 3,
  "cost_uncertainty": "high"
}

Integration Points

  • Feeds into risk propagation network and Monte Carlo success probability.
  • Applies bidability penalty for unresolved frontier gaps.
  • Triggers pre-bid R&D phase recommendations.

Success Metrics

  • Fewer bids on technically premature opportunities.
  • Better planning of R&D-first project phases.
  • Reduced execution failure from unknown technical gaps.

Risks

  • Over-classification of challenges as frontier.
  • Incomplete research signals due to limited sources.
  • R&D timelines difficult to estimate accurately.

Future Enhancements

  • Automated scanning of research literature and patents.
  • Expert panels for frontier assessment.
  • Continuous updates as research advances.

Detailed Implementation Plan

Phase 1: Frontier Detection Framework

  1. Build capability taxonomy by domain:
  2. materials science
  3. civil/structural engineering
  4. logistics in extreme environments

  5. cross-border governance and standards

  6. Implement maturity classifier:

  7. mature / adaptation required / frontier

  8. confidence score with evidence references

  9. Attach evidence retrieval:

  10. standards databases
  11. recent publications/patents
  12. comparable projects and postmortems

Phase 2: Research Dependency Register

For each frontier dependency, generate: - challenge statement - missing capability threshold - candidate research tracks - expected R&D duration/cost ranges - kill criteria for failed approaches

Store as a first-class artifact linked to plan sections.

Phase 3: Bidability and sequencing logic

  1. Compute a frontier feasibility index.
  2. Adjust bid/no-bid recommendation based on unresolved high-severity frontier items.
  3. Insert pre-bid R&D phases before main execution phases when required.

Example for Bering-style bridge scenario

Unresolved class: cold-climate concrete performance.

System output should include: - what performance threshold is missing - current evidence gap - 3 candidate pathways to close the gap - timeline + budget impact per pathway

Data model additions

  • frontier_dependencies (plan_id, component, maturity, severity, confidence)
  • research_tracks (dependency_id, hypothesis, timeline_range, cost_range)
  • frontier_index (plan_id, score, blockers_count)

Governance hooks

  • Require expert signoff for high-severity frontier dependencies.
  • Prevent final “verified” status if critical frontier blockers unresolved.

Validation checklist

  • Expert review agreement on maturity labels.
  • Correlation between frontier index and downstream execution risk.
  • Reduction in technically premature bids.

Detailed Implementation Plan (R&D Programization)

Frontier Detection Ops

  • Build challenge classifiers for materials, environment, logistics, and policy domains.
  • Attach evidence references for each frontier label.

Research Program Builder

  • Convert frontier gaps into staged R&D tracks with gates:
  • feasibility proof
  • pilot validation
  • scale readiness

Bid Integration

  • Add bidability penalty for unresolved critical frontier gaps.
  • Surface required pre-bid R&D budget/time in executive summary.

Validation

  • Compare mapper outputs with expert panel assessments.